I am a big fan of the Election Commission as an institution and I think it’s one of the reasons we still have hope as a democracy. N Gopalaswami, Chief Election Commissioner, who is the reason for the immense success of the UP Elections, has two very interesting and important recommendations for changing the way we decide as a society.
The first reservation he has is with the criminal record of candidates who contest elections leading to the criminalization of politics. Currently the law is such that anyone can contest as long as he has not been ‘convicted’ of an offence. Anyone who has been accused and even charge-sheeted can contest elections as long as he is otherwise eligible. One of his recommendations is to disallow anyone to contest if he has any serious charges against him. He feels a person shouldn’t be allowed to contest if he has been charge-sheeted (not merely reported in an FIR) for an offence where the punishment is greater than five years. Also, to prevent a number of spurious charges just before elections to prevent someone from contesting, there could be a six month cut off.
Now while this idea sounds great in theory I have serious reservations with such a procedure. Now let’s imagine the worst possible democratic situation and see how this law would operate. Assume an Emergency like situation where the police is a puppet in the hands of the government (it already is, but during an Emergency situation there is greater opportunity for government to make the police charge-sheet opposition leaders) and the judiciary has also aligned with government. In such a situation the only peaceful way of coming back to power is democratically by eventually contesting elections and such a rule by the CEC may completely ruin any chances of opposition leaders coming back to power. With such a rule we may never have a Janata Party like historic win. I know the situation I describe seems extreme. But all laws must be judged by their consequences in the hands of despots and no law must be based on the goodwill of leaders. A simple reading of Animal Farm will tell us that there is no such thing as goodwill of leaders.
The second recommendation that Gopalaswami has is a personal one. He feels that the First-Past-the-Post system which we follow in our elections does not reflect the majority and if we want better leaders, decisions and governance we must change institutional rules to reflect the choice of the majority.
I couldn’t agree more with his second recommendation. A while ago I wrote an article called the Reality of Reality Television for my college magazine okonomos on the way we make decisions as a people during elections and in reality shows. Instead of meandering more in this post I’ll just reproduce the article here to give you a fair idea of the king of institutional rules I am talking about.
The Reality of Reality Television
I have always wondered about the kind of reality that the new genre of reality television in India portrays; whether it is in the laughs, the tears, the controversies, the fights between the contestants or in some cases the judges; or perhaps it is in creating stars rise from the most humble settings. The answer is probably, all of the above. However, as a student of public choice the reality for me in reality television is in the voting patterns and the social decision making process which makes the winners emerge and fade with every season.
Circa 2005, Mumbai. 12 contestants were chosen to sing each week with the hope of attracting our votes to become the next Indian Idol. The rules were simple, phones lines are open to anyone who can call or text; any number of times for the same contestant or more than one. The contestant receiving the least number of votes is eliminated each week. One would believe that since the masses vote for the winner; he or she is automatically a success and sells the most records.
Now from the celluloid to reality. The twelve contestants took over Indian television for a few months. The painter from Punjab, Ravinder Ravi, managed to win hearts not just through his voice (which was just average) but his humility; apparently his vote bank was almost completely in Punjab. The wining horse, or so they predicted, would be the savvy college student from Mumbai, Rahul Vaidya. The others invited comments, good and bad, with each passing episode. In the end remained two contestants Amit Sana and Abhijeet Sawant, both dark horses in this race. Abhijeet Sawant won, partly due to his smile, partly due to his popular appeal and cut an album. The album sales were good but not commensurate with the number of votes he received. The popularity, largely generated by excellent PR firms, faded unexpectedly. One would believe someone who received a few lakh votes would continue to remain a star. History repeated itself in 2006 when Sandeep Acharya, who was called Udit Narayan’s clone, won over Karunya who has been crowned the better singer by the judges. I remember watching how Sandeep Acharya and Karunya went to Rajasthan and Andhra Pradesh respectively to campaign because that was their vote bank. Karunya lost because he was from the south where Indian Idol is not as popular as in Rajasthan resulting in lesser votes.
Similarly in a contest by Channel [V] Ravinder Upadhay who won is nowhere to be seen today whereas Naresh Iyer, one of the other contestants, has made it big in the playback world singing for stalwarts like Rehman. I have observed over the past that the ultimate validation for a singer in India is to sing as a playback singer in films. Even the popular artists like Alisha Chinai achieve success with the masses only after singing for Bollywood. Stars created by other reality television not involving voting have reached great heights such as Shreya Ghoshal and Sunidhi Chauhan. So one wonders why this pattern exists and the winners, despite receiving the largest number of votes, fail to remain successful for over fifteen minutes. Simply out the winners are not able to sell enough records and not enter movies, which is the ultimate validation in Indian music industry. If they had mass popularity they would have at least got a contract with Pepsi or Coke who always select popular idols and icons for their products before anyone else. One would imagine that these pop artists who already have universal popularity, or so it seems, would enter mainstream film music meant for the masses. But why have they been rejected?
Circa 2004, Mohanlalganj. In the Parliamentary Elections Uttar Pradesh had the voter turn out of only 48% one of the lowest in the country. Of the 80 seats in UP 65 seats had over 10 candidates per constituency with some constituencies having up to 32 candidates. In the Mohanlalganj constituency where there were 10 contestants the winner won by a margin of 0.004%. The winner won only 25.8% of the votes implying three quarters of the electorate was not in favour of the winning candidate and his policies will reflect the choices of only a fourth of the electorate. All you need to unseat the incumbent is 25% in this case and even lesser in other cases where fractionism is even greater in the constituency.
This got me thinking that perhaps these voting patterns reflect a different reality from what is shown on television, be it entertainment shows or political news. These rules are institutionally designed to select, not the one who is most acceptable, but perhaps one who appeals to a small group of people and wins on the margin. The numbers we have for Mohanlalganj and Indian Idol are reflecting the same reality; one where the rule of First-Past-the-Post in elections is failing society.
So now the real question is what kind of institution will create a situation where the social decision reflects the choice of more voters than less.
While the voting in reality shows no doubt reflects regional and caste realities it is one that is perhaps because entertainment is a lot about regional culture. Indian idol also proves to be tricky because one who votes may not buy records and vice versa. More importantly in this case luckily the television or radio can be turned off if ones candidate loses or the winner doesn’t suit ones preferences, unlike parliamentary elections where their policies take away your college seat, land or even freedom.
For parliamentary elections one plausible solution is to have a second run off after the first election where as many candidates contest. In this system, after the first round of election if no candidate receives 50% plus one vote or more there would be a second election with only the top two candidates where one would get a clear majority. The advantage of this system is no policy of any contestant can be polarised benefiting 20-30% of the population. All contestants would be forced to accommodate preferences of all voters or they would lose the second run off. Policies only benefiting the farmers lobby or lower castes or a certain religion would be difficult.
Finally the truth of politics is simple. One cannot please all the people all the time and only please some of the time. The trick is to create institutions where one must please most of the people most of the time!